Q&A: The Future of COVID-19
Senior writer Kara Grant co-authored this report.
March 15, 2023 – As we approach the third anniversary of the COVID-19 pandemic, experts and everyday Americans wonder if we are finally at the end of what has been a painful and exhausting ordeal that’s lasted 3 years. With vaccine and booster fatigue, COVID-19 cases leveling out, and a growing body of research that has helped us understand the virus more clearly, many are still asking: How concerned should I be?
In February, the Biden administration announced that it was the end of the road for the COVID-19 emergency orders, which had been in place since January 2020. That came after a year still fraught with ups and downs, with the U.S. surpassing 1 million COVID-19 deaths and variants continuing to evolve.
We asked experts their thoughts on the future of COVID-19 and how their perspectives have shifted over the years.
Where Are We Now With COVID-19?
While the Omicron variant is still lingering, we’re in a period of lower rates of COVID-19 transmission.
Vaccinations and boosters have helped. That, along with antiviral treatments and high rates of collective immunity, have kept COVID-19 at bay, but it’s important to remember that this virus isn’t going anywhere, says Ashwin Vasan, MD, the commissioner of the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene.
“The federal emergency will expire in May, and compared to where we’ve been, we’re not in an emergency today,” he says. “But we will have to use the tools and strategies to really manage whatever COVID-19 throws at us going forward – if it were to change or if it ends up being more of a seasonal virus, like other coronaviruses.”
One thing is for certain: Health care will never be the same, says Jennifer Gil, a registered nurse and a member of the American Nurses Association Board of Directors.
“While cases in our area are steadily declining, patients and health care workers continue to experience the long-lasting effects of the pandemic,” she says. “I witness it every day when I see the long-term impact it has had on patients, access to care, and health care workers’ mental and emotional well-being.”
Is This the End of the Pandemic?
First, it’s important to understand the difference between a pandemic and an epidemic, Vasan says. An epidemic is the spreading of a disease that outpaces what would be expected within a certain time and location. A pandemic is an epidemic that spreads across various continents and regions of the world.
COVID-19 is a new virus, which makes things tricky. “Before 2020, our baseline was zero because COVID-19 didn’t exist,” says Vasan. “So, the question we can’t really answer from an epidemiologic standpoint is – ‘is it still a pandemic?’ Well, is it circulating beyond what’s to be expected? I think we’re going to have to figure out what those expectations are at baseline.”
Jim Versalovic, MD, pathologist-in-chief at Texas Children’s Hospital, deems this a “post-pandemic” period, since the virus isn’t impacting us as dramatically as it did in 2020 and 2021. This is thanks to the successful efforts “to diagnose, treat, and prevent COVID-19,” along with collective immunity after many being exposed and infected with the virus, he says.
Some experts believe that declaring the pandemic “over” is a long shot. Rather, it’s likely that we are changing to more of an endemic status, according to Natascha Tuznik, DO, an infectious disease specialist at the University of California, Davis. It’s best to view COVID-19 as a “permanently established infection” in both humans and animals, she says. So we should treat it like the seasonal flu and continue to be careful to update vaccinations.
“Vaccine uptake, overall, is still insufficient,” says Tuznik, “It’s important to not let our guard down and believe the problem no longer exists.”
The impact the pandemic has had on communities of color, frontline workers, and the health care system more broadly is also not to be forgotten, says Gil. “While the number of COVID-19 cases is subsiding, the invisible impact of the pandemic will continue to emerge in the coming years,” she says.
What Worries You Now About COVID-19?
Complacency can be an issue with any viral infection, says Versalovic, and it’s critical to continue to treat COVID-19 with extreme caution. For example, the U.S. will always need to track COVID-19 trends.
“It has become one of our major respiratory viruses affecting mankind around the globe,” he says. “Certainly, in the medical profession, we’re going to have to do our best to communicate and emphasize to everyone that these viruses aren’t going to disappear, and we need to continue to be aware and vigilant.”
Don’t forget that people still die from this virus every day, says Tuznik. “COVID-19 has killed over 1 million Americans and over 6.8 million people globally,” she says. “While the rates of death have declined, they have not stopped.”
Vasan poses another critical question: “What pieces are in place to ensure that we have a strong health system prepared to respond to COVID-19 changes or if another epidemic or pandemic illness arrives?”
Examples could include ensuring tests, vaccines, and treatments are deployed in a quick, strategic manner, and building a public health system that can make that happen, without failing to support health care workers, he says.
Challenges like staffing shortages and hazardous work conditions have resulted in mental health-related issues and burnout among health care workers, Gil says. Many have reported skyrocketing rates of PTSD, anxiety, depression, and stress. Some have chosen to leave the health care workforce entirely.
“Investing in our health care workforce by providing mental health and wellness resources is essential,” says Gil. “We must also equally address the underlying issues by enforcing safe staffing standards and investing in long-term solutions that aim to improve the work environment.”
Has the Pandemic Changed Your Relationship to Medicine?
The COVID-19 crisis has altered the health care world, likely for posterity. For many, like Vasan, the last 3 years have been a shining example of how fragile our health care system is.
“We continually spend on things that don’t deliver on health,” he says, referring specifically to the $4 trillion spent on health care, with only a small fraction of that dedicated to disease prevention efforts. “Had we spent more on prevention, fewer would have died from COVID. We need to have a reckoning in this country about whether we are willing not to design for health care and medicine, but to design for health.”
And while COVID-19 certainly brought to light the major – and minor – flaws in the health care system, the knowledge we’ve learned along the way is a silver lining for many doctors. Versalovic says that the chaos and anxiety forced those in medicine to rapidly refine their approaches to diagnostics, from in-hospital testing to drive-thru and at-home testing. Along the way, he says, there has also been a renewed gratitude for treatments like monoclonal antibodies and the preventive powers of RNA vaccines.
But for Tuznik, the pandemic has given her an entirely newfound appreciation for her career path.
“The infectious diseases community really came together as a tour de force during the pandemic, and it was humbling to be a part of such a mass effort and collaboration,” she says.
What Have the Last 3 Years Taught You?
COVID-19 has forced us all to learn new and often difficult lessons about ourselves, our relationships, and how we each fit into the world.
It’s a line we’ve heard over and over again: These are unprecedented times. A large part of that has been the extreme politicization of science and the growing divisiveness across the country. But despite what feels like unyielding friction in the medical community and beyond, people were still able to come together and tackle the pandemic’s challenges.
Vasan says that our ability to work together on life-saving treatments and prevention strategies is “a testament to human endeavor, ingenuity, collaboration, in the face of an existential threat.”
For nurses, the pandemic brought about pervasive burnout and fatigue. But that’s not the end of the story.
“Personally, it has driven me to go back to school to gain the research and analytical skills necessary to develop evidence-based policies and programs that aim to improve health care delivery,” says Gil. “Now, more than ever, nurses are key stakeholders at the policy and decision-making table.”